What is Iowa caucuses success rate for predicting candidates who will win president?
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(According to WikiMedia) Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 43% success rate at predicting which Democratic candidate for president and a 50% success rate at predicting which Republican candidate for president will go on to win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, though they may more reliably indicate which ones are likely to drop out owing to lack of support. The Iowa Caucusis is an electoral event in which residents of the of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,681 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions. There are 99 counties in Iowa, and thus there are 99 conventions. These county conventions then select delegates for both Iowa's Congressional District Convention and the State Convention, which eventually choose the delegates for the presidential nominating conventions. About 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen by the Iowa State Convention.

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The Iowa Caucus is noteworthy for the amount of media attention it receives during U.S. presidential election years. Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral event of the nominating process for President of the United States. Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 43% success rate at predicting which Democratic candidate for president and a 50% success rate at predicting which Republican candidate for president will go on to win the nomination of theirpolitical party at that party's national convention, though they may more reliably indicate which ones are likely to drop out owing to lack of support.